THREAT PERCEPTIONS AND STRATEGIC ADAPTATION IN 21st CENTURY FINLAND

Small states have limited ability to influence the security environment and other states in the rivalry over scarce resources. How can a small state adapt to changes and challenges in the security environment and protect the state from perceived threats? The purpose of this thesis is to understand how a militarily non-aligned small state's threat perceptions adapts to changes in the security environment and how these developments affect its strategic adaptation. The thesis explains how some 21st century changes of the security environment have affected the Finnish threat perceptions and strategic adaptation of a small state. The problem is solved by conducting a qualitative content analysis of Finnish security and defence reports of the 21st century and by utilizing an analytic framework constructed for this purpose. The question is answered by presenting the main changes in the Finnish security environment and threat perceptions, and by explaining how policy has been adapted to these changes. The questions are answered both conceptually with theoretic models from a small state perspective and with in-depth analysis utilizing the theoretic models for contextual understanding in a structured manner. As a result, conceptual frameworks are presented as tentative explanations for a small state’s threat perceptions and strategic adaptation. The contextual results suggest that from a change perspective the Russian aggressions in Ukraine 2014 and 2022 have had the biggest impact on Finnish strategic adaptation in terms of conceptual changes, use of resources and alignment strategies.