The Power of Values in Determining Interstate Threat Perception

Interstate threat perception plays a vital role in peace and conflict, having the potential to lead to pre-emptive war. Despite the significance of the theme, little is known about the elements and mechanisms at play guiding threat perception at the state level. This study contributes to said gap by focusing on values as the driver of threat perception. The argument explores the regional constraints of threat perception, focusing on regional military interventions and their effects on the threat perception of the states within said region. Thus, the paper addresses the question of what role value congruence plays in interstate threat perception following a regional military intervention. The paper hypothesises that a higher perceived value congruence between the perceiving state and the intervening state lowers the degree of threat perception. Noting data limitations and isolation challenges, the study finds support for this hypothesis by exploring the case of 2014 Russian intervention in Ukraine and its effects on Belarus, Poland, and Sweden.