Calibration techniques for binary classification problems: A comparative analysis

Calibrating a classification system consists in transforming the output scores, which somehow state the confidence of the classifier regarding the predicted output, into proper probability estimates. Having a well-calibrated classifier has a non-negligible impact on many real-world applications, for example decision making systems synthesis for anomaly detection/fault prediction. In such industrial scenarios, risk assessment is certainly related to costs which must be covered. In this paper we review three state-of-the-art calibration techniques (Platt’s Scaling, Isotonic Regression and SplineCalib) and we propose three lightweight procedures based on a plain fitting of the reliability diagram. Computational results show that the three proposed techniques have comparable performances with respect to the three state-of-the-art approaches