Carbon pricing in the aviation sector: A sector-specific approach to CO2 abatement potential and cost

The aviation sector is a key target of international climate negotiations. Indeed, its greenhouse gas emissions have recorded tremendous growth trends over the past twenty years and still show strong momentum. In this context, several questions emerge as to how much emission reduction can be achieved in this oil-dependent sector, at what cost to the industry and to the global economy, and based on which policy levies. After clarifying the stakes of greenhouse gas emission reduction in the aviation sector, we present an analysis of past emissions abatement achieved in the aviation industry. We then point to the different fuel use efficiency levies used for achieving such abatement (namely, fleet renewal and technology retrofit on existing aircraft, enhanced airlines operations and improved infrastructure), but also the scale and cost of abatement allowed by each levy. Building on this review of past emissions abatement, we assess the mid-term (2020) potential for future abatement in the aviation sector, be they based on similar fuel use efficiency levies or on other levies which may include air transport demand management (through intermodality for instance) or reduction in the carbon content of jet fuels (from the use of alternative fuels). Combining top-down and bottom-up approaches, we suggest a draft marginal abatement cost curve for CO2 emissions in the aviation industry. Finally, after reviewing the different options for introducing a carbon price in the aviation sector, we discuss the effects of such policies