Kauzalnost između ekonomskog rasta i potrošnje energije u Hrvatskoj

The main goal of the paper is to investigate relation between economic development and energy consumption in Croatia. This paper examines the casual relationship, using Granger test, between gross domestic products (GDP) and total primary energy consumption in Croatia. Analyzed period is from 1953 to 2005. In the paper vector auto-regression model (VAR), Granger causality test and unit root test are used as tools for analysis. Economic and energetic time series usually have the problem of non stationarity series. Non-stationary time series are trying stationarity with differentiation of variables, using co-integration technique. Applying Granger’s causality test in Croatian case, we found that GDP Granger causes total energy consumption not energy consumption Granger causes GDP. The result shows that relationship for Croatia runs from total primary energy consumptions to gross domestic products, not from gross domestic products to primary energy consumption. Conclusion of VAR model is that variable total primary energy consumptions and the constant are not significant in the model and that variable gross domestic products is significant. Base conclusion of the paper is that VAR model evaluation shows that change of GDP of 1% in period t-1 would affect the annual total primary energy consumption for 0,509% in period t.Glavni cilj rada je istražiti vezu između gospodarskog razvoja i potrošnje energije u Hrvatskoj. Ovaj rad istražuje kauzalni odnos između bruto domaćeg proizvoda (BDP) i ukupne potrošnje primarne energije u Hrvatskoj. Analizirano razdoblje je od 1953. do 2005. godine. U radu su korišteni Grangerov test kauzalnosti, VAR model i unit root test. Vremenske serije ekonomskih i energetskih varijabli često imaju problem nestacionarnosti koje se kontegracijom pretvaraju u stacionarne. Koristeći navedene modele i testove u radu je pokazano da bruto domaći proizvod utječe na potrošnju primarne energije a ne da potrošnja primarne energije utječe na bruto domaći proizvod odnosno da porast BDP-a utječe na porast primarne potrošnje energije a ne da porast primarne potrošnje energije utječe na rast BDP-a. Zaključak dobivenog VAR modela je da su primarna potrošnja i konstanta nesignifikantne varijable a da je bruto domaći proizvod signifikantna varijabla.Osnovni zaključak VAR modela je da rast GDP-a od 1% u razdoblju t-1 utječe na rast primarne potrošnje od 0,509% u razdoblju t