Recent advances in rock wall permafrost modelling to understand bedrock failure

International audienceA recent increase in the rate of failure in periglacial rick walls has been attributed to permafrost degradation. To validate this hypothesis, we applied a simple transient thermal model to hundreds of observed rockfalls in the Mont Blanc massif and determine the statistical relationship between rock wall temperature dynamics and failure occurrence. This is a first step towards prediction of rockfall probability. To improve our understanding of the processes leading to failure, we made a first attempt to cpuple thermal and hydrological models.The role of water flowing through bedrock fractures enhances the rate of permafrost degradation and affects the pressure field distribution