A genetic risk score and diabetes predict development of alcohol-related cirrhosis in drinkers

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Only a minority of excess alcohol drinkers develop cirrhosis. We developed and evaluated risk stratification scores to identify those at highest risk. METHODS: Three cohorts (GenomALC-1: n=1690, GenomALC-2: n=3037, UK Biobank: relevant n=6898) with a history of heavy alcohol consumption (≥80 g/day (men), ≥50 g/day (women), for ≥10 years) were included. Cases were participants with alcohol-related cirrhosis. Controls had a history of similar alcohol consumption but no evidence of liver disease. Risk scores were computed from up to eight genetic loci identified previously as associated with alcohol-related cirrhosis and three clinical risk factors. Score performance for the stratification of alcohol-related cirrhosis risk was assessed and compared across the alcohol-related liver disease spectrum, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). RESULTS: A combination of three single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (PNPLA3:rs738409, SUGP1-TM6SF2:rs10401969, HSD17B13:rs6834314) and diabetes status best discriminated for cirrhosis risk. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the extreme score quintiles (Q1-Q5) of the 3-SNP score, based on independent allelic effect size estimates, were 5.99 (4.18;8.60) (GenomALC-1); 2.81 (2.03;3.89) (GenomALC-2); and 3.10 (2.32;4.14) (UK Biobank). Patients with diabetes and high-risk score, compared to those without diabetes and a low-risk score, had ORs increased to 14.7 (7.69;28.1) (GenomALC-1) and 17.1 (11.3;25.7) (UK Biobank). Patients with cirrhosis and HCC had significantly higher mean risk scores than patients with cirrhosis alone (0.76±0.06 versus 0.61±0.02, p=0.007). Score performance was not significantly enhanced by information on additional genetic risk variants, body mass index or coffee consumption. CONCLUSIONS: A risk score based on three genetic risk variants and diabetes status can provide meaningful risk stratification for cirrhosis in excess drinkers, allowing earlier prevention planning including intensive intervention