Case studies of shipping along Arctic routes : analysis and profitability perspectives for the container sector

Many models in the literature have been published to try and assess the profitability of shipping in the Arctic.•Their conclusions differ widely depending on the selected parameters.•Most simulations focus on direct cost parameters but fail to consider market issues.•A new model shows some Asian ports can be served profitably along an Arctic route.•The most important factors for a profitable Arctic service seem to be transit speed and load factor. Arctic sea routes have for long attracted interest from observers and shipping companies because of their shorter distances between the Atlantic and the Pacific. The prevalence of sea ice prevented the real development of a significant traffic, but did not prevent research from trying to assess the economic viability of these routes. With the actual present melting of sea ice in the Arctic, this effort at modeling the profitability of Arctic shipping routes received a new impetus. However, the conclusions of these studies vary widely, depending on the chosen parameters and their value. What can be said of these models, from 1991 until 2013, and to what extent can a model be drawn, capitalizing on twenty years of simulations