MEDIUM-TERM PROGNOSIS OF CANCER MORTALITY AMONG THE POPULATION OF RUSSIA

Background. Cancer remains a difficult disease to prevent, detect, treat or manage it. The mortality rate is one of the most important criteria for assessing the health of the population. Nevertheless, the correct use of analytical indicators is important, especially when assessing time series. The crude cancer mortality rate is closely related to the proportion of elderly patients. All international publications (WHO, IARC, territorial cancer registries) assess the morbidity and mortality using the standardized indicators that eliminate the difference in the age structure of the compared population groups. The purpose of the study was to analyze cancer mortality in Russia and to calculate the medium-term mortality prognosis in crude and standardized rates up to 2025, as well as to highlight the main factors related to cancer mortality. Material and Methods. We used standard methods for estimating time series, including the moving average method. Results. We calculated the share of the elderly population in Russia (retirement age). It was found that from 1960 to 2017, the proportion of pensioners (men aged 60 and older and women aged 55 years and older) increased from 6.2 % to 15.8 % and from 16.2 % to 32.9 %, respectively, thus excluding the assessment of mortality by a crude mortality rate. From 2000 to 2017, the crude mortality rate of the population of Russia decreased by 2.7 %, while the standardized rate decreased by 20 % (19.6 %). The reduction in the mortality rate of the Russian population was significantly affected by a favorable change in the structure of mortality, the proportion of localizations of cancer with a high mortality rate decreased significantly. Conclusion. The calculations of the medium-term prognosis show that by 2025 the crude mortality rate will decrease to 195 ± 5.1 0/0000, and standardized rate to 100 ± 3.2 0/0000