Market-consistent valuation of a pension product with guarantee in line with Solvency II : An applied case study to improve knowledge about how rationality and stressed conditions with respect to market- and insurance risk will impact the balance sheet.

Traditional pension products have today been replaced by products that are linked directly to the unit value of some kind of investment portfolio. These products contribute to more vulnerable situations for insurance companies in terms of uncertainties of future obligations. This master thesis aims to create a general valuation model in line with Solvency II regulation, which is able to value the best estimate of the insurance liability. The model will use a state model, stochastic scenario generator model and the Makeham function for estimating mortality intensity. An applied case study was conducted to evaluate how stressed market- and insurance conditions would impact the liability. Additional studies was performed to test how different degrees of rational behaviour among policyholders would impact the liability. The policyholder population was fictitious and consisted of 100 policyholders. The results illuminated that the degree of rationality had a relative significant impact on the insurance company's liability, as opposed of what impact trends in longevity had on the best estimate in a separated stress test. On the other hand, when stress testing market risk and trend in longevity at the same time, the non-linearity risk was relatively high. The results of this thesis indicated the importance of studying risks in a combined case and not only separately, and also that higher degree of rational behaviour among policyholders could lead to an increase in surrender of profit generated policyholders which in turn affected the insurance liability