The unpredictable variability of Data Stream Pro-cessing (DSP) application workloads calls for advanced mechanisms and policies for elastically scaling the processing capacity of DSP operators. Whilst many different approaches have been used to devise policies, most of the solutions have focused on data arrival rate and operator resource utilization as key metrics for auto-scaling. We here show that, under burstiness in the dataflows, overly simple characterizations of the input stream can yet lead to very inaccurate performance estimations that affect such policies, resulting in sub-optimal resource allocation. We then present MEAD, a vertical auto-scaling solution that relies on online state-based representation of burstiness to drive res...