International energy trends : monthly supplement on oil trends, may 1978

Preliminary estimates suggest that in 1977 primary energy requirements of the OECD rose by 0.9 against an increase in GDP of 3.5% as compared with 1976 (see Table A). This very low ratio of energy growth to economic growth held true in each of the three main areas of the OECD. Only in the case of Europe can it be attributed in part to somewhat milder temperatures affecting the year on year comparison. On the basis of these preliminary estimates for 1977, the elasticity of energy require ments to GDP growth is 0.52 for the 1972-77 period, against the 1.05 which applied during the 1960-72 period. The apparent drop in the energy GDP ratio must, of course, be interpreted with caution since the rate of economic growth has been very low in recent years and its pattern abnormal. The recession in heavy industry in most countries during the period may, for example, have had a disproportionate impact on energy requirements