Scenarios and time series of future wind power production in Sweden

The introduction of large amounts of wind power is a challenge for the operation of the power system. In order to facilitate future studies of the effects of significantly higher penetration levels, scenarios and accompanying time series of hourly wind power production in Sweden were developed. The annual production in the scenarios range from 20 to 70 TWh and the time series span the period 1979 to 2014. The model for hourly wind power production was validated with historical measurements and is shown to give a small error (MAE below 3%) and a good match of the statistical distributions of hourly power and step changes thereof. A statistical model for simulation of intrahourly fluctuations (5 and 15 minutes temporal resolution) was also developed. An important conclusion is that the normalised variability will be reduced in the future, mainly because of higher capacity factors and an increased share of offshore wind power