POLICY SIMULATION ON DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF BEEF IN INDONESIA

Beef meat are the strategic commodities rapidly have demand increasing by years. Unbalanced on demand and supply effects on national demands performance, present by impressive rates of imported beef meats and the lifestock. This study aimed to analyze the impact of policies related to beef meat supply and demand factors. The data used in this study was secondary data on 1996-2013 (time series data). Beef meat economic model analysis used econometrical model approach, formulated from simultaneous equation. Model sounding made by two stage least square (2SLS) method, followed by simulation policies. Impact of 1.4 % population growth tended to press 1.3 % beef meat demand. Furthermore, the impact of policies with increasing 20 % amount of imported cow would raise 0.7 % of beef meat supply, causes declining on the amount of import and domestic beef meat price, 0.08 % and 0.16 %, respectively. However, the impact of beef meat import declining in 35 % would decrease the supply until 19 %. Based on that study result showed that the beef meet self-supporting programs by government at 2014 - 2023 should be difficult to be reached. As the production has not been able to answer the demand