DETERMINANT OF BEEF IMPORT IN INDONESIA

Beef as one of national staples which is rich in nutrient has become a major concern of Government of Indonesia (GOI) to make policy related between the import of beef and beef self-sufficiency program. During 2000 – 2015, there was an increase on the price of beef which was also attended by the level of production and consumption. The aim of this research is to analyze beef import in Indonesia and predict the situation of domestic and imported beef for the trade policy in short and long term. This study uses an ordinary least square and autoregressive distributed lag to find relationship quantity ratio and parice ratio and to predict Indonesia’s beef import. This method will uses Armington elasticities to predict the short and long term of beef import. The main question is do Indonesia need to import beef. Keywords: Armington Elasticity, Beef, Autoregressive Distributed La