2014 Outlook of the U.S. and World Sugar Markets, 2013-2023

This report evaluates the U.S. and world sugar markets for 2013-2023 using the Global Sugar Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on assumptions that general economic conditions, agricultural policies, population growth, weather conditions, and technological changes remain at the long-run conditions. Both the U.S. and world sugar economies are predicted to improve over the next ten years. World sugar prices increased from 17.9 cents/lb in 2009 to 22.5 cents/lb in 2010 and 27.2 cents/lb in 2011 before falling to 17.5 cents/lb in 2013. In early 2014 ICE No.11 sugar prices were at 15.1 cents/lb. World sugar production declined 15% in 2013 while consumption increased slightly. World demand for sugar is expected to be strong during the next few years, resulting in world sugar prices recovering from the lows in 2014 and 2015. Sugar prices are expected to increase to 24 cents/lb by 2023. The U.S. wholesale price of sugar is projected to increase from a low 31 cents/lb in 2014 to near 38 cents/lb by 2023. It is projected that Mexican exports to the United States will increase from 1.75 million metric tons in 2013 to 1.84 million metric tons in 2023. World trade volumes of sugar are expected to increase throughout the forecast period