2016 Outlook of the U.S. and World Sugar Markets, 2016-2025

This report evaluates the U.S. and world sugar markets for 2015-2025 using the Global Sugar Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on assumptions that general economic conditions, agricultural policies, population growth, weather conditions, and technological changes remain at the long-run conditions. Both the U.S. and world sugar economies are predicted to remain constant over the next ten years. World sugar prices increased from 18.7 cents/lb in 2009 to 27.0 cents/lb in 2010 and 32.0 cents/lb in 2011 before falling to 18.0 cents/lb in 2013, 16.8 cents/lb in 2014, and 13.4 cent/lb in 2015. World sugar production declined 6.9% in 2015 while consumption increased by 4.2%. World sugar prices are expected to increase to 13.6 cents/lb by 2025. The U.S. wholesale price of sugar is projected to decrease from a 34.9 cents/lb in 2015 to near 33.9 cents/lb by 2025. It is projected that Mexican exports to the United States will decrease from 1.60 million metric tons in 2015 to 1.55 million metric tons in 2025. World trade volumes of sugar are expected to increase throughout the forecast period