ECONOMICS OF WHEAT-FALLOW CROPPING SYSTEMS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA

Income and risk aspects of wheat-fallow cropping systems are analyzed in western North Dakota. A wheat yield trend estimation model based on county yields (1950-77) is developed using independent variables of year, annual precipitation, acres of nonfallowed wheat and a dummy variable for fallow and nonfallow practices. The year-to-year change in wheat yields on fallowed and nonfallowed land indicates that summer fallow is becoming less desirable economically. Based on 1980 costs and yields, summer fallow maximizes returns to land at low yields, low wheat prices, and high nitrogen prices. Income variability is reduced under summer fallow