Modelling Generalized Poisson Regression in the Number of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) in East Nusa Tenggara

Regression analysis is an analysis used to model the relationship between the dependent variable (Y) and the independent variable (X). If the dependent variable is a discrete random variable, it is developed using the Poisson regression model. Poisson regression models require non-over-dispersion model assumptions. To deal with over-dispersion, a Generalized Poisson regression model was developed. Generalized Poisson regression (GPR) model is an extension of the Poisson regression model. In this study a GPR model is applied to model the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) sufferers in East Nusa Tenggara Province in 2018. The independent variables used include percentage of poor population (X1), population density (X2), percentage of proper sanitation (X3), percentage of decent homes (X4), number of doctors (X5), percentage of access to improved drinking water (X6), average length of schooling (X7), human development index (X8). In the resulting model, Poisson regression experiences multicollinearity and overdisception occurs. To overcome multicollinearity, variable selection is performed. Based on the measurement of the goodness of the model using AIC, the GPR model provides better accuracy than Poisson regression to model DHF in East Nusa Tenggara which is 218.5