Climate change impacts on the water resources of Andean countries

[ES] Latinoamérica presenta una alta disponibilidad y un elevado volumen de recurso hídrico. Este hecho, combinado con una abrupta topografía, permite generar importantes aprovechamientos hidroeléctricos con estructuras relativamente reducidas, lo que ha hecho proliferar este tipo de explotaciones. De manera reciente, sin embargo, ha comenzado a manifestarse inquietud respecto a los efectos que el cambio climático pueda tener sobre las centrales hidroeléctricas, y cómo esto pueda afectar a la disponibilidad y distribución de energía eléctrica en los distintos países. En el presente trabajo presentamos la metodología y principales resultados obtenidos en el estudio Vulnerabilidad al cambio climático y medidas de adaptación de sistemas hidroeléctricos en países andinos que ha cubierto los sistemas hidroeléctricos de Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador y Perú. Focalizaremos nuestros esfuerzos en el análisis del recurso hídrico, paso previo al análisis de la evolución del recurso hidroeléctrico, a nivel regional, donde se han generado unas bases de datos homogéneas para toda el área de estudio mediante reconstrucción temporal y espacial, haciendo uso de técnicas de krigeado. También se ha procedido a homogeneizar la información sobre tipos de suelo y usos del suelo. La hidrología se ha resuelto con el modelo hidrológico semidistribuido VIC. Se ha analizado el periodo histórico 1980-2010, y se han generado proyecciones de cambio climático para el corto plazo (2011-2040), el medio plazo (2041-2070) y el largo plazo (2071-2100) para los escenarios RCP4.5 y RCP8.5 utilizados en el 5° informe del IPCC (Panel Intergubernamental para el Cambio Climático). Se ha tenido en cuenta además la posible evolución socioeconómica y su impacto sobre los usos del suelo.[EN] Latin America is characterized by a highly available, large amount of water resources. This fact, combined with an abrupt topography allows the creation of important hydropower stations with relatively small structures, what has fostered this kind of infrastructures. Recently, however, some worries have started to appear related to the effects that climate change may have on hydropower stations, and how these effects may change the spatial distribution of energy generation in the region. In this work, we present a methodology and the main results obtained in the study Climate change vulnerability and adaptation measures of hydropower stations in Andean countries that has studied the hydropower systems of Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. The main focus of this work is on the regional analysis of the water resources, a previous step to the analysis of the evolution of hydropower resources, where homogeneous databases of hydroclimatic variables have been generated for the whole study area, making use of spatio-temporal reconstruction through Kriging. Land use and soil type information has also been homogenized for the whole study area. Hydrology has been resolved with the semi distributed hydrologic model VIC. We have analyzed the historic period 1980-2010 and have generated climate change projections for the short term (2011-2040), the medium term (2041-2070) and the long term (2071-2100) for scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC. We have also considered the socio-economic evolution and its impact on land use.Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID), la Organización Latinoamericana de la Energía (OLADE), Agencia Estatal de Investigación (AEI) y Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER)Del Jesus, M.; Paz, J.; Navas, S.; Turienzo, E.; Diez-Sierra, J.; Peña, N. (2020). Efectos del cambio climático en el recurso hídrico de los países andinos. Ingeniería del agua. 24(4):219-233. https://doi.org/10.4995/ia.2020.12135219233244Bao, X., Zhang, F. 2013. 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