From its once pre-eminent position in state health policy, hospital rate setting has declined in use to a handful of states today. This study examines prospective hospital rate setting in four states that established aggressive programs. The decisions to deregulate by Massachusetts and New Jersey state governments, along with an anticipated decision in New York in 1996, are examined. Maryland state government's choice not to deregulate is also explored. Two rival theories are used as potential explainers of these developments: the theory of economic regulation emphasizing the role of interest groups, and the punctuated equilibrium model of policy change emphasizing policy ideas. Results. Hypotheses of the theory of economic regulation ar...