Electoral pendulum 2004

The government would lose its majority in the House of Representatives if it were to lose eight seats at the next election. Conversely, for the Labor Party to win a majority it would need to win an additional 13 seats. The Labor Party requires a uniform swing of 2.2 per cent to win the necessary 13 seats. In this research note Gerard Newman and Andrew Kopras show the notional swing required for each seat to change hands at the next election. The pendulum takes into account recent redistributions in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia