The well-known electoral pendulum lists seats according to the swing needed for each seat to change hands on either sides of the pendulum. Unfortunately, electoral swings are not necessarily uniform across seats and the pendulum is not a necessarily reliable predictor of election outcomes in particular seats. In this research note Gerard Newman attempts to overcome the uniform swing assumption implied in the pendulum construct by presenting seat margin data in a different format
Antony Green discusses the political impact of the finalised New South Wales state electoral boundar...
The Alternative Vote system used for elections to the Australian House of Representatives is general...
textabstractThis paper provides a theoretical model of pre-electoral budget cycle and tests its empi...
The government would lose its majority in the House of Representatives if it were to lose eight seat...
Since the 2004 election there have been electoral boundary redistributions in the Australian Capital...
This paper provides a comprehensive set of statistical tables regarding the 2010 Federal Election. T...
This paper examines two rival forecasting models of election outcomes for Britain. The first is a mo...
A ranking exists in electoral systems research of different electoral formulas—the mathematical func...
analyzed. We distinguish two important features of the seats-votes relationship that are often confo...
We review a number of different statistical techniques for creating seats-votes curves and apply the...
All electoral systems have an electoral formula that converts proportions of votes into Parliamentar...
We find that strategic sequencing and other factors sort parties roughly into two groups. Low-rankin...
The relationship between a party's popular vote share and legislative seat share---its seats-votes s...
What is the best way to predict Australian federal election results? This article analyses three for...
We analyse the results of British general elections from 1950 to 2015. In our model, voting is both ...
Antony Green discusses the political impact of the finalised New South Wales state electoral boundar...
The Alternative Vote system used for elections to the Australian House of Representatives is general...
textabstractThis paper provides a theoretical model of pre-electoral budget cycle and tests its empi...
The government would lose its majority in the House of Representatives if it were to lose eight seat...
Since the 2004 election there have been electoral boundary redistributions in the Australian Capital...
This paper provides a comprehensive set of statistical tables regarding the 2010 Federal Election. T...
This paper examines two rival forecasting models of election outcomes for Britain. The first is a mo...
A ranking exists in electoral systems research of different electoral formulas—the mathematical func...
analyzed. We distinguish two important features of the seats-votes relationship that are often confo...
We review a number of different statistical techniques for creating seats-votes curves and apply the...
All electoral systems have an electoral formula that converts proportions of votes into Parliamentar...
We find that strategic sequencing and other factors sort parties roughly into two groups. Low-rankin...
The relationship between a party's popular vote share and legislative seat share---its seats-votes s...
What is the best way to predict Australian federal election results? This article analyses three for...
We analyse the results of British general elections from 1950 to 2015. In our model, voting is both ...
Antony Green discusses the political impact of the finalised New South Wales state electoral boundar...
The Alternative Vote system used for elections to the Australian House of Representatives is general...
textabstractThis paper provides a theoretical model of pre-electoral budget cycle and tests its empi...