Futures Methodology as an Analysis and Planning Tool within the Commercial Real Estate Industry, an Interpretative Study

Currently, the majority of methods used in the commercial real estate analysis and planning processes have retrospective and quantitative roots and are based on historic data and trend extrapolation. This approach is based on the assumption that the relationships among key commercial property market variables and trends are constant and develop in a predictable manner into the future. Meanwhile, contemporary real estate companies, which are the subject of this study, are faced with rapid change, often of a discontinuous nature, in their external and internal environments. Furthermore, some of the challenges facing this industry, like social sustainability and a shift towards green development, are complex and difficult to quantify. This study addresses the issue of incorporating innovative and qualitative future oriented approaches into traditionally quantitative commercial real estate analysis and strategic planning. The aim of the research was to formulate a set of proposals for the effective and systematic use of futures approach in the real estate field. Specific objectives of the study were an in-depth examination of long-term planning approaches and application of futures methodologies in the commercial real estate industry. The study identified several propositions concerning the use of futures methodologies in the commercial real estate industry analysis and long-term planning. The research also recognised that futures methodologies are linked inextricably with the strategic planning field and both should be used together to exploit and create new and different future opportunities for the commercial real estate industry