기후변화가 날씨기반형 관광에 미치는 영향: 한국의 야외물놀이 활동 수요와 스키장 운영을 중심으로

학위논문 (박사)-- 서울대학교 환경대학원 협동과정 조경학, 2017. 8. 이동근.from around 90 days at present to around 80 days based on RCP 2.0, around 90 days based on RCP 4.5, around 50 days based on RCP 6.0, and 10 days based on RCP 8.5 in the areas where the average temperature of the ski season is above 0 °C. In addition, it is also estimated that in the 2090s, 16 of 17 ski resorts can survive based on RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5, 13 ski resorts can survive based on RCP 6.0, and none of the resorts can survive based on RCP 8.5, according to the 100-days rule. The results of this study show that there will be major changes in weather-based tourism due to climate change. These changes include the expansion of season for summer weather-based tourism activities, including outdoor water activities, and a reduction of season for winter weather-based tourism, including activities such as skiing. In terms of tourism demand, tourists can easily adapt to changing environments due to climate change though the substitution of activities, seasons, and destinations. However, when it comes to tourism operation, operators, who already invested massive budgets into the development of tourist destinations, will experience difficulties in management due to the deterioration of destinations and the loss of tourists due to climate change. Thus, managerial strategies that helps operators flexibly respond to climate change are required. This study is meaningful in that it suggests landscapes which will be impacted by climate change within the tourism industry, and takes into consideration future weather-related changes, which have not been studied before in South Korea. To predict more detailed changes and suggest more meaningful countermeasures, future studies that focus on a specific type of tourism industry and a more specific location are required.The impact of climate change on the tourism industry is expected to be significant. This is especially true in the case of tourism that requires specific weather conditions to function. It is possible that such forms of tourism will experience radical changes to meet demand and operational difficulties resulting from climate change. Despite this, the academic field of tourism has shown climate change only lukewarm interest. One reason for this attitude might be the fact that the impact of climate change is invisible and long-term, and so at odds with the interests of the tourism industry, which focuses primarily on visible and short-term aspects of business. However, as the seriousness of climate change and its impact becomes more apparent, it is important for researchers to investigate the ways in which it will affect the tourism industry and plan effective countermeasures. The purpose of this study is to predict changes in weather-based tourism due to climate change and offer meaningful implications that the tourism industry can refer to when preparing to address climate change. This study employs two practical analyses. The first analysis focuses on tourism demandit analyzes the impact of climate change on the demand for outdoor water activities. The second analysis is focused on tourism supplyit analyzes the impact of climate change on the operation of ski slopes. For the impact analysis on outdoor water activities, 9 public outdoor swimming pools in 3 megacities, Seoul, Daegu, and Busan, were selected as study sites. To determine the preferred weather conditions for outdoor water activities, the best-fit lines of scatterplots of the Z-score of the number of visitors to each swimming pool and the corresponding temperatures were found. The ranges of the temperature, when the best-fit lines increase, are set as preferred weather conditions for outdoor water activities. To predict changes in the preferred season for outdoor water activities, future weather data for the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s from RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios are adapted to the range of temperature for preferred weather conditions. In terms of the analysis of the impact of climate change on the operation of ski slopes, all 17 ski resorts in South Korea were selected as study sites. To determine the weather and managerial conditions for the operation of ski slopes, interviews with operators and a review of past weather and operational conditions were conducted. By doing this, the conditions for artificial snowmaking, slope open, and slope close were found. To project future changes in the season of operation for ski slopes, future weather data for the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s from RCP scenarios were adapted to the conditions of snowmaking, slope open, and slope close. In addition, the sustainability of ski slopes is also examined using the 100-days rule, which is the minimum required duration of the operation of ski resorts. The study found that, when it comes to the demand for outdoor water activities, the preferred weather conditions are found at: 24.27 °C to 35.91°C in Seoul, 25.79 °C to 35.30 °C in Daegu, and 26.91 °C to 34.08 °C in Busan. By applying the future weather data to these conditions, it is estimated that the preferred season for outdoor water activity will gradually shift from June to September to May to June and September to October due to extremely hot weather of July and August. The number of days of preferred weather for outdoor water activities will increase from: 126 days at present to 135 days in the 2090s based on RCP 2.6, 149 days based on RCP 4.5, 145 days based on RCP 6.0, and 138 days based on RCP 8.5 in Seoul136 days at present to 136 days in the 2090s based on RCP 2.6, 147 days based on RCPs 4.5 and 6.0, and 143 days based on RCP 8.5 in Daegu94 days at present to 109 days in the 2090s based on RCP 2.6, 123 days based on RCP 4.5, 127 days based on RCP 6.0, and 136 days based on RCP 8.5 in Busan. If the duration of the non-preferred weather season during July and August due to extreme hot weather is included, the number of days of the preferred season for outdoor water activities is estimated to reach six months in the 2090s. In terms of the operation of ski slopes, the preferred conditions for operation were found. Artificial snowmaking begins when the temperature reaches -2 °C, the slope is opened 9 days after artificial snowmaking starts, and the slope is closed when the temperature reaches 0 °C. By applying future weather data to these conditions, it is estimated that the ski season will decrease in the future as follows: from around 130 days at present to around 120 days based on RCP 2.0 and RCP 6.0, around 130 days based on RCP 4.5, and 90 days based on RCP 8.5 in the areas where the average temperature of the ski season is below -2 °Cfrom around 120 days at present to around 120 days based on RCP 2.0 and 4.5, around 100-days based on RCP 6.0, and 60 days based on RCP 8.5 in the areas where the average temperature of the ski season is below 0 °CI. INTRODUCTION 1 1. Purpose of the study 1 2. Scope of the study 5 3. Research questions and outline 7 II. LITERATURE REVIEW 10 1. Tourism, weather, and climate 10 2. Climate change trend and its projection 12 3. Impact of climate change on tourism 15 4. Previous studies estimating the impact of climate change on tourism 19 4.1. The impact on the demand for outdoor water activities 19 4.2. The impact on the operation of ski slopes 25 III. ANALYTICAL DESIGN 31 1. The analysis of the impact of climate change on the demand for outdoor water activities 31 1.1. Study sites 32 1.2. Data 36 1.3. Methods 38 2. The analysis of the impact of climate change on the operation of ski slopes 39 2.1. Study sites 40 2.2. Data 43 2.3. Methods 45 IV. RESULTS 47 1. The impact of climate change on the demand for outdoor water activities 47 1.1. Weather conditions for the demand for outdoor water activities 47 1.2. Projected changes in the demand for outdoor water activities 53 2. The impacts of climate change on the operation of ski slopes 60 2.1. Weather conditions for the operation of ski slopes 60 2.2. Projected changes in the operation of ski slopes 65 3. Comparison of results with previous studies 72 3.1. The impact of climate change on the demand for outdoor water activities 72 3.2. The impact of climate change on the operation of ski slopes 73 V. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION 77 1. Discussion 77 2. Conclusion 89 REFERENCES 93Docto