Modelling risk-based inspections in EU organic certification: data requirements and analysis tools

A Risk Based Inspection (RBI) scheme is a planning tool used to develop the optimum plan for the execution of inspection activities. Organic certification system could benefit from the implementation of RBIs in terms of higher effectiveness, i.e. trustability, and lower transaction costs for organic operators. Data from certification bodies provide basic information about non-compliances and structural aspects of organic operators. Here we propose a methodological approach to risk analysis modelling, based on discrete choice models and Bayesian networks, both aiming at the identification of key risk factor in the organic certification process in the European Union