Pendugaan Elastisitas Penawaran Output dan Permintaan Input pada Usaha Tani Padi dan Jagung: Pendekatan Multiinput-Multioutput

EnglishThe objective of this study was to estimate output supply and input demand elasticities for analyzing impacts of price changes of output, input, and infrastructure on supply of output (rice and corn) and on demand for inputs. Data were taken from surveys conducted in 2007 and 2010 by the Indonesian Center for Agricultural Socio Economic and Policy Studies (ICASEPS) in collaboration with JBIC and IFPRI. The unit of analysis was village. As many as 45 lowland villages were selected as samples from seven provinces in and off-Java. A multi input-multi output approach with Seemingly Unrelated Regression was used to estimate the elasticity and appropriateness of the model. The results of analysis show that elasticity of output supply on its price was positive and elastic, while elasticity on input price was negative and inelastic. Elasticity of input demand on its price was negative, and it was elastic to the price of urea fertilizer, irrigation fee, labor cost, and other inputs, while elasticities on other inputs price varied. Elasticity of input demand on rice price changes was positive and elastic. Acreage and infrastructure (rural road and irrigation) had a positive impact on output supply and input demand. The results of the study implies that rice production could be increased by sustaining Government Purchase Price policy, promoting adoption of new technology, limiting land conversion into non-farming use, and improving rural infrastructure.IndonesianTujuan penelitian ini adalah melakukan pendugaan elastisitas penawaran output dan permintaan input untuk menganalisis dampak perubahan harga output, harga input, dan infrastruktur (irigasi dan jalan) terhadap penawaran output (padi dan jagung) dan permintaan input. Data bersumber dari hasil survei PSEKP, JBIC, dan IFPRI tahun 2007 dan 2010 di tujuh provinsi di Jawa dan luar Jawa. Penelitian menggunakan unit analisis desa dengan jumlah sampel 45 desa sawah. Analisis menggunakan pendekatan multiinput-multioutput dan estimasi model menggunakan metode seemingly unrelated regression. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan elastisitas penawaran output terhadap harga sendiri bertanda positif dan elastis, sedangkan terhadap harga input bertanda negatif dan inelastis. Elastisitas permintaan input terhadap harga sendiri bertanda negatif dan elastis terhadap pupuk urea, pengairan, tenaga kerja, dan input lainnya, sedangkan terhadap harga input lainnya besarannya bervariasi. Elastisitas permintaan input terhadap perubahan harga padi bertanda positif dan elastis. Luas areal tanam dan infrastruktur (irigasi dan jalan) menunjukkan pengaruh positif terhadap penawaran output dan permintaan input. Implikasi penelitian adalah peningkatan produksi padi dapat dilakukan dengan melanjutkan kebijakan HPP, meningkatkan penggunaan teknologi, menekan laju konversi lahan, dan meningkatkan alokasi anggaran untuk pembangunan/rehabilitasi infrastruktur irigasi dan jalan