The Determinants of WTO Members’ Preference for Agricultural Negotiation on Market Access

了解WTO主要農業議題、各談判國家立場及佈局、以及在國際談判中尋找適當的盟國，取得相較有利的情勢，可使我國從WTO的農業貿易自由化制度中獲益同時兼具永續經營之目標，因此本文研究的目的在於探討影響WTO會員國農業談判立場因素之探討。 本研究將影響各國對於農業議題市場開放之立場屬性分為三個構面進行探討，包括「貿易規模」、「國家發展及外交政策」及「農業生產及競爭力」。經由實證結果得知，以貿易規模而言，農產品淨出口產值是影響立場的重要因素。此外，就國家發展及外交政策而言，在積極與保守的比較當中，農業人口佔總人口比例值不論在一般模型及邊際模型中，皆不是關鍵影響因素；而參與WTO入會時間越長，對市場開放的態度會趨向保守；在糧食安全，每人每日攝取的熱量來看，以邊際效果的模型上，為顯著因素；國家產業結構也是重要的關鍵因素。最後，在農業生產及競爭力的構面上，農產品產值是重要因素；而農產品技術亦是影響會員國立場的關鍵因素；灌溉面積佔農地比例也是影響因素。由實證結果得知，在態度的選擇上，八個變數的檢定結果皆為顯著，意謂這些變數都會影響會員國立場的決定因素。The purpose of this research is to examine the determinants of WTO members’ preference for agricultural negotiation on market access. Applying multinomial logit model the empirical study this issue from three dimensions: international trade scale, country development and diplomatic policy, and agricultural competitiveness. The results show that, on international trade scale dimension, net export value of agricultural products is an important factors affecting members’ preference. Also, on the dimension of country development and the diplomatic policy, the ratio of agricultural population to total population is statistically insignificant. The member tends to be conservative if the time length to participate WTO is longer. Both food security and country industry structure are significant. Finally, on the dimensions of agricultural production and competitiveness, agricultural production value, agricultural technologies and irrigated area accounts for agricultural land are key factors affecting the preference of WTO member