Sustained spending and persistent response: a new look at long-term marketing profitability

An intuitively appealing decision rule is to allocate a company's scarce marketing resources where they have the greatest long-term benefit. This principle, however, is easier to accept than it is to execute, because long-run effects of marketing spending are difficult to estimate. We address this problem by examining the over-time behavior of market response and marketing spending, and identify four commonly occurring strategic scenarios: business as usual, hysteresis in response, escalating expenditures and evolving-business practice. We explain and illustrate why each scenario can occur in practice, and describe its positive and negative consequences for long-term profitability.When good time-series data on revenue and marketing spending are available, it is possible to apply multivariate persistence measures to identify which of the four strategic scenarios is taking place. We apply these ideas to data from two major companies in the packaged-foods and pharmaceuticals industries. We observe several long-term marketing effect, some with profitable and some with unprofitable consequences, and offer recommendations for each case.We conclude that high-quality databases along with modern time-series methods can be instrumental in extracting vital long-term marketing-effectiveness information from readily available data. Therefore, managing marketing resources with long-run performance in mind need no longer be a pure act of faith on behalf of the executive. We hope that this and future work will contribute toward an improved allocation of scarce marketing resources in our companies.status: publishe