New South Wales state and regional population projections 2001-2051

Population projections can be used for a wide range of purposes. They enable a greater understanding of the determinants of population change and are an essential input into future decision making. The Department of Infrastructure, Planning & Natural Resources (DIPNR) is responsible for the production of official population projections on behalf of the NSW Government. The most recent set of State and Regional projections (2004 release) are for the period 2001 – 2051. This paper outlines the methodology used in the derivation of these projections along with a summary of the results. The projections have been produced using POPSTAR (Population Projections for a State/Territory and its Regions), a multi-regional cohort component model developed by the University of Queensland. The model projects births, deaths, internal migration and overseas migration by single year of age, separately for males and females, for each region of the State. The model operates using a migration pool method whereby out-migration from each region is calculated using rates. This ‘pool ’ of out-migrants is then re-allocated back to regions as in-migrants using proportions which the user sets and which can vary over time. The projected population of NSW in 2051 may range between 8.4 million and 9.6 million, representing an increase of between 1.8 million and 3.0 million people over the next three decades. This population growth is not expected to be evenly distributed throughout NSW, with coastal regions expected to grow at a faster rate than the rest of NSW