Canadian Inter-Provincial Migration Decline and The Demographic Determinants: A logit model and decomposition analysis measuring the demographic predictors of Canadian inter-provincial migration alongside migration’s widespread decline

This paper studies the link between observed demographic changes and Canadian inter-provincial migration decline. Alongside recent changes in age composition, educational attainment, marital trends, and immigration; Canadian internal migration has been widely in decline. In this context, this project investigates the demographic determinants of Canadian provincial migration and the correlation between Canada’s socio-demographic shifts and the decline of inter-provincial migration in Canada. To do so, this analysis consists of two identical multivariate logistic regressions and an econometric decomposition using the data of the 1991 and 2016 Canadian Census Public Use Microdata Files [PUMFs]. The dependent variable is inter-provincial migration, and the focal independent variables are age, educational attainment, marital status, immigrant status, and province of residence 5 years ago. By investigating how these determinants associate with migration, this project seeks to provide a greater understanding of how demographics predict inter-provincial migrations in Canada, how these demographics have changed, and how they have affected inter-provincial migration decline. In a broad sense, this examines the continuity of contemporary demographic trends in their relation to Canadian macro-economic human capital distribution. Through our investigation, we conclude that while compositional changes are notable, the changing determinants of migration more significantly explain Canadian inter-provincial migration decline