Provincial out-migration patterns of Canadian elderly: characterization and explanation

Interprovincial migration patterns of Canada's elderly are examined and compared with their nonelderly counterparts, by using data from Revenue Canada's income tax file for a fifteen-year period (1966/67 - 1980/81). First, in a simple descriptive analysis it is shown that, despite becoming increasingly different through time, the departure rates as well as the patterns of destination choice of the two groups were broadly similar. Second, a multivariate statistical analysis, carried out using a nested logit model, reveals that (1) the pattern of destination choice of the elderly was relatively sensitive (even more so through time) to environmental factors, whereas that of the nonelderly was relatively sensitive to labor-market variables, and that (2) the variation in provincial departure rates (for both groups) depended significantly on the size and composition of the origin population as well as the drawing power of the rest of the system. In particular, our results suggest that the overall decline observed in the elderly's departure rates is the consequence of changing sensitivity to circumstances in the province of origin rather than to circumstances in the potential destinations.