Fixed-to-mobile substitution in the US, EU, and China: Forecasting technology diffusion using the Lotka-Volterra Competition model

Objectives The first purpose of this thesis is to test the performance of the Lotka – Volterra Competition model in forecasting demand for technologies. Secondly, the paper aims to determine the interrelationship between the markets and their expected behaviors based on population theories. Thirdly, it attempts to gauge the similarities and differences of market behaviors in the most developed economies based on GDPpc as of October 2018. Summary Total annual subscription for each market was used to perform in-sample forecasts. Parameterization was obtained using the Gauss-Newton non-linear least squares method with the Marquardt algorithm. Then, the stable equilibria were shown in the interactive outcome graphs, which indicate that the theoretical suggestions are well-supported by historical market patterns. Conclusions The results indicate high fitting performance (R-squares>0.98) with estimated data close to that of actual observations. Despite data complications, the model has a good degree of accuracy. The competitive relationships for the US, the EU, and China are suggested to be amensalism, amensalism, and pure competition, respectively. The equilibrium analyses show that in all scenarios, the mobile cellular market dominates the fixed-line phone market. Over time, mobile phones will substitute fixed – line phones and obtain maximum growth