Are global value chains receding? The jury is still out. Key findings from the analysis of deflated world trade in parts and components

In this article, we examine the dynamics of Global Value Chains (GVCs) since the 2000s. Did itshow a marked expansion up to the Great Recession and did GVCs begin a downturn in the2010s? To better understand the evolution of GVCs at the world level, we use very detailed tradedata for 2000 to 2016, which distinguishes different production stages along the GVC. Inparticular, among intermediate goods, we focus on Parts and Components (P&C) rather thansemi-finished products since the manufacture of P&C corresponds to activities more embedded inGVCs. We control, also, for the global business cycle and price effects using an originalproduction stages deflator based on detailed bilateral trade unit-values. This new GVC indicatorshows moderate growth over the study period with no trend reversal