Spatial and temporal reconstruction of bovine viral diarrhea virus genotype 1 dispersion in Italy

Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) is a widespread and economically important pathogen of cattle; genetic typing of BVDV isolates distinguished two species, namely BVDV-1 and BVDV-2. BVDV-1 is the most widespread worldwide and it includes at least 11 subtypes. With the aim of clarifying the routes of circulation of BVDV-1 subtypes in an endemic area and in order to investigate the relationships between the genetic diversity of BVDV and its geographic distribution, a phylogenetic analysis of 5' untranslated region of Italian sequences was performed using a new Bayesian framework allowing the spatial-temporal reconstruction of the evolutionary dynamics of highly variable viruses. Our analyses suggested that different BVDV subtypes entered the North-Eastern part of Italy at different times within a time span between 23 and 7 years ago. The largest virus dispersion occurred between the mid 1990s and the early 2000s. A possible gravity-like dynamic of the infection, originating in larger animal population then following patterns of national commercial-flow, should be hypothesized