Possible future scenarios of nagorno-karabakh conflict

Possible Future Scenarios of Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s conflict of Nagorno-Karabakh is one of the most abstruse bilateral clashes in the world. Nagorno-Karabakh Republic is not the only de facto state in South Caucasus, but also the state which declaration of independence in 1991 provoked the biggest war in post-soviet territory. After 1994, the truce was called, but the gunfight between Armenians and Azerbaijanis is still ongoing. Even though this territory remains in Azerbaijan’s political map, it is under control of Armenian army; making the claim to Nagorno-Karabakh a contemporary Gordian knot. Despite seemingly logical endeavors to find a compromise between Armenia and Azerbaijan, they were paradoxically unsuccessful. Literature suggests that the overall exogenous and endogenous factors prevent the effective settlement of the conflict. Bachelor thesis subject – the complex conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan of Nagorno-Karabakh. Bachelor thesis aim – to predict potential scenarios of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Bachelor thesis goals: 1. Using the realism international relations approach, explain the internal and external context of Armenia – Azerbaijan relations and the roots of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict; 2. Select and describe the method of research, revealing the prognostic capabilities whilst remaining in coherence to the theoretical framework of realism; 3. Determine the driving forces of the conflict; 4. Attain the key variables influencing the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict; 5. Predict possible future scenarios. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was explained in classical realist perspective. Hans Morgenthau, a leading theorist of this approach, highlighted the element of interest, expressed by power; which is visible in this conflict. Using the classical perception of Struggle for Power, this work estimated national power of both Armenia and Azerbaijan theoretically and empirically. The assessment of national capacity was extremely important because it not only explained the differences of Erevan’s and Baku‘s foreign policy, but also disclosed the complexity of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. An objective review of national power was made, by distinguishing geographical and human factors in the regional dimension. The clash of dualistic interests of self-assertion and self-preservation amount to the driving forces of the conflict. Armenia’s desire to maintain the status quo, imperialistic ambitions of Azerbaijan, and both diplomatic and military levels of prestige policy are the basic strategies, which help to identify the dynamic forces of the conflict; significantly, Turkey – Armenia relations, Russia – Turkey relations and the changes in oil price. In order to fulfill the aim of this bachelor work, three possible future scenarios were made. In today‘s perspective, the least likely is a diplomatic scenario. Nagorno-Karabakh problem is so complex that it requires the creation of balance between internal and external forces. This becomes increasingly difficult to attain, considering the worsening relations of Russia and Turkey. Notably, the Moscow - Ankara partnership is very important to eliminate the isolation of Yerevan. It is apparent that this isolation will persist until the new Turkish presidential election in 2019. The Nagorno-Karabakh gunfights in April 2016, illustrated that small oil prices are the reasoning behind Azerbaijan’s arguably illogical strategy to retain its powerful status with help from Turkey. Hence, according to the realism approach, it could be argued that the war or military breakthrough currently is the most realistic future scenario. However, even the most active acts of shadow war in Nagorno-Karabakh always return to the equilibrium illustrating the possible continuance of stagnation of this frozen conflict. This poses that question as to whether the conflict has the potential to become as volatile and uncontrollable as the previous scenario predicts