Demand for Cigarettes by Teenagers and Young Adults and Their Smoking Transitions

This paper provides the first comprehensive analysis of the effects of cigarette prices, cigarette excise taxes, smoke-free air laws, youth access laws, state spending on comprehensive tobacco control programs, socio-economic factors, and demographic characteristics on measures of demand for smoking, especially light and intermittent smoking by teenagers and young adults in a long panel. I employ the panel to estimate demand for cigarette smoking by young people and the determinants of transitions from light or intermittent smoking to heavy or regular smoking in the following years. Finally, I estimate transitions in the opposite direction: from regular or heavy smoking to light or intermittent smoking and to quitting. My findings indicate that the cigarette price and the price change significantly reduce the smoking prevalence, the conditional cigarette consumption, and the probabilities of some progressive smoking transitions, as well as increase the probabilities of regressive smoking transitions. The price elasticities implied for demand for cigarettes and smoking transitions are consistent with the previous literature. In addition, most smoke-free-air laws, youth access laws, state spending on comprehensive tobacco control programs are effective in preventing progressive smoking transitions or promoting regressive transitions. Cigarette smoking is the leading cause of premature death in the United States and is directly responsible for nearly one-third of all cancer deaths. Knowledge of the effects of tobacco policies in reducing smoking will have very important public health implications. The findings from my study provide invaluable information to policy makers in decreasing the tremendous burden of tobacco related disease