Estimation of potential health demands from changes in population dynamics in Paraguay

This paper analyzes the demographic changes with the health status of the population in order to estimate the potential demands on health from the transformations in the population predictable until the year 2025. For the fulfillment of Objective 3, of the Sustainable Development Goals, which establishes "ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages", it is necessary to achieve universal health coverage and required to know the population to attain. The advent of a significant amount of older adult population should warn about changes in epidemiological patterns, the increase in chronic degenerative diseases and greater demands on health. As a result, it has been obtained that the effective health demand in 2015 in Paraguay represents 81.3% of total demand. The probable demand is estimated in more than 2,250,000 people on average in the period from 2020 to 2025, of which approximately 1,950,000 are considered likely to be effective cases. The difference between total and effective demand represents the effort that the system must effectuate to improve coverage of care. The demand will be concentrated mainly in urban areas, in women and in older adults. The difference between total and effective demand represents the effort that the system must make to improve coverage of care. The challenges that demographic changes will have on the health system, the various individual characteristics and socioeconomic factors that influence the decision to request assistance must be taken into account