Prediction of Survival in Patients with Liver Cancer Using Artificial Neural Networks and Classification and Regression Trees

[[abstract]]This study created a survival prediction model for liver cancer using data mining algorithms. Methods: The data were collected from the cancer registry of a medical center in Northern Taiwan between 2004 and 2008. A total of 227 patients were newly diagnosed with liver cancer during this time. Following a literature review, expert consultation, and collection of patients' data, nine variables pertaining to liver cancer survival rates were analyzed using t-tests and chi-square tests. Six variables were significant. An artificial neural network (ANN) and a classification and regression tree (CART) algorithm were adopted as prediction models. The models were tested in three conditions: one variable (clinical stage alone), six significant variables, and all nine variables (significant and non-significant). Five-year survival was the output prediction. Results: The ANN model with nine input variables was a superior predictor of survival (p＜0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was 0.843, and 0.78, 0.76, and 0.80 for accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity respectively. Conclusions: An artificial neural network was more accurate than a CART system in predicting liver cancer survival. In the future, we suggest developing a computer system using the nine input variables in the ANN prediction model to predict liver cancer survival. The system would use an ANN algorithm to automatically calculate the prediction result and assist patients in understanding their potential treatment outcomes and survival