Modelling support to decision making where the land forces the sea: an example in the system Guadalquivir estuary - Gulf of Cádiz shelf

Trabajo presentado en la Kick-off workshop of the Network of Experts for ReDeveloping Models of the European Marine Environment, celebrada en Bruselas en enero de 2016.The Guadalquivir estuary is a hot spot for environmental and human conflicts. The estuary and its immediate surroundings are presently home to 1.7 million people clustered in 90 population settlements. Aquaculture, navigation, agriculture, urbanization, tourism, salt production or fisheries are among the human activities stressing the estuarine environment. This environment includes very sensitive habitats such as Doñana National Park, a wetland considered a UNESCO-MAB Biosphere Reserve and World Heritage site. In this context, the recent decision by the Port Authority of Seville to extend the program of dredging so as to significantly increase the depth of the navigational section of the estuary triggered social alarm, and created the need for a comprehensive analysis of the estuary and the potential consequences of human actions on its physical and ecological dynamics. In the present communication we describe how a simple model based on previous formulations of the marine pelagic food web, but adapted to the special characteristics of the Guadalquivir estuary, assisted in providing this comprehensive, high quality baseline understanding, necessary to meet the demands of the stakeholders. The communication will also outline alternative approaches to probabilistically modelling the impact of estuarine and oceanographic processes on fishery resources at the Gulf of Cádiz shelf, including the economic impact on the sector.Peer reviewe