Biology and economy equilibria in the coastal zone: modelling and scenario analysis as a rationalization tool for small-pelagics

Trabajo presentado en el Network of Experts for ReDeveloping Models of the European Marine Environment, celebrado en Bruselas el 22 y 23 de marzo de 2017.A coupled population dynamics and economic model is applied to the purse seine anchovy-fishery in the Gulf of Cádiz. The model simulates the population dynamics, landings and profits on a probabilistic frame. These simulations are used to assess the biological and economic consequences of an individual quota management framework enveloped by a fixed Total Allowable Catch, the present strategy used to manage this stock in the Spanish fishery. Our results accurately indicate that this strategy magnifies the biological and economic vulnerabilities associated with the exploitation of the stock, thus jeopardizing sustainability in both realms. Alternative scenarios, such as flexible strategies based on adaptation to environmental forcing, are explored. The results indicate that even a basic implementation of an adaptive management is more favorable than the rigid strategies in the necessary equilibrium between profits and sustainability at the implementation of the MSFD and other EU policiesPeer reviewe