Pathways for the North European electricity supply

This paper investigates the development of the electricity-supply systems in Northern Europe(Germany, UK, Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Norway) until the year 2050. The focus is onthe response to an assumed common stringent CO2-reduction target and on the role of carbon captureand storage technologies (CCS). Special emphasis is put on turn-over in capital stock, timingof investments and the infrastructural implications of large-scale introduction of CCS. The analysis iscarried out through scenario analysis with the aid of a techno-economic model, in which a caseincluding CCS is compared to a case excluding this option. The phase out of the present capitalstock (power plants) is included from the Chalmers energy infrastructure databases, which givesinformation on present and planned power plants down to block level for plants exceeding 10MW netelectric power. Assuming technical lifetimes for these plants yield residual capacities in each year, herereferred to as the phase-out pattern. CCS technologies are assumed to become commercially availablein 2020.The age structure of the power plants indicate that full turn-over in capital stock will take severaldecades with the present generation capacities accounting for around 50% of generated electricity in2020. The results show that CO2 emission reductions of 20% and 60% by the years 2020 and 2050,respectively, relative to 1990, can be met at a marginal cost of abatement of about 25–40 h/ton CO2 overthe period studied if CCS is included as an option from 2020. At the same time the marginal cost ofgenerating electricity lies in the range 45–60 h/MWh. Excluding CCS raises the marginal cost ofabatement with about 10 h/ton CO2, whereas the marginal cost of electricity generation increases withroughly 5–10 h/MWh. The CO2 target by the year 2020 is met by implementation of renewableelectricity and fuel shifting from coal to gas. After 2020 CCS technologies constitute an attractive wayfor cost efficient and almost CO2-free base load. However, wide-spread application of CCS is aninfrastructural challenge with respect to implementing capture plants as well as building up acorresponding CO2 infrastructure for transportation and storage as well as in coal supply systems. Giventhe price assumptions applied, gas may not be competitive once CCS enters the system causing earlyretirements of such units or possibly stranded assets