Development of KRIVET Occupation Prospect Index

직업세계에서 진행되고 있는 변화의 흐름을 거스르지 않고 주도적으로 헤져 나가기 위해 무엇보다 필요한 것은 직업의 현황과 미래전망에 관한 심층적이고 신뢰할 수 있는 정보이다. 정확하고 신뢰할 수 있는 직업전망정보는 국가적 차원의 인적자원개발을 효율화함은 물론 국민 개개인의 합목적적 진로설계를 위한 기초가 된다. 본 연구는 직업의 다양한 가치를 반영한 종합적인 직업전망지표를 주기적으로 산출하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 2007년에는 1차 전망으로서 제조업종에 속하는 152개 직업을 대상으로 직업전망을 실시하였으며, 연차적으로 전 직종에 대한 직업전망 정보를 산출할 계획이다. 본 연구를 통해 산출된 10년 후 미래에 대한 직업전망 정보는 인적자원정책 담당자는 물론, 장차 직업세계로 진입하게 될 학생, 전직을 준비하는 재직자, 은퇴기에 제2의 인생 설계를 하고 있는 중고령자 등에게도 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것이다. ○ 주요내용 - 직업전망지표개발 연구방법론 - 제조건설업종의 특징과 직업세계 - 직업전망지표의 주요 결과 - 10년 후의 직업전망지표 - 향후 정책과제1. Introduction In recent years, the Korean economy has experienced rapid transition into knowledge-based economy, more severe competition from open-door policy than before, and intense technological innovation. These changes are leading to changes in the socio-economic structure and, as a result, the uncertainty and instability surrounding the world of occupations are higher than ever before. For households, businesses, and governments to response actively and effectively against the rapidly progressing world of occupations, it is important and urgent to find the exact nature of change and to forecast the future direction. The information provided through the "Occupation Prospect Index" will help form the foundation for optimal responses to the challenges posed by the world of occupations, especially assisting and promoting individuals to make self-initiated career plans and contributing to the enhancement of efficiency of government's HRD policy. This study succeeds the 2006 project on "Basic Research on the Development of KRIVET Occupation Prospect Index". The main objective of the 2006 study was to complete the design of the Occupation Prospect Index by understanding the related statistics and surveys, and organizing the network of experts. Based on the last year's survey design, we have carried out a survey on 867 job experts. The purpose of this study is to afford a credible Occupation Prospect Index and make it public so as to broaden the understanding of individuals about the world of occupations and thereby support rational career planning. Also, it aims to strengthen the linkage between school and work, and support the government's HRD policy. KRIVET Occupation Prospect Index consists of seven evaluation areas and 23 detailed items as follows: ① compensation - earnings and benefits ②employment conditions - job creation, job growth, and job competition ③employment stability - full-time employment and job retention ④career growth prospects - self-development, promotion, and possibility of job change ⑤working conditions - working hours, physical environment, stress ⑥professionalism - expert knowledge, autonomy, authority, social reputation, community service, and spirit of calling ⑦employment equality - gender equality, elder-friendliness. In total, 867 job experts responded to these items for maximum of 10 jobs among 152 jobs which were mainly from manufacturing and construction industries. They have evaluated 23 detailed items for each job of their choice for present and 10 years later from now. The survey on job prospects for 10 years later was tried for as an early warning of changes in the occupation world. Of the 392 occupations classified in the Korean Employment Classification of Occupations (KECO), 152 jobs were surveyed this year and the remaining occupations will be covered 2008 and 2009. First of all, we have constructed a database of 9,774 occupation experts using various ways and developed an on-line survey system. Survey period was from 20 August to 5 October, 2007 and, finally, we received 4,790 responses from 867 occupation experts for 152 occupations surveyed this year. 2. Main Findings The Occupation Prospect Index was compiled for the 152 jobs based on 867 occupation experts' responses on 23 detailed survey items. The main results will be presented in three distinguishing time horizons, namely, present, 10 years time, and the difference between the two points in time. First, according to the Occupation Prospect Index for the present, IT related occupations showed the highest prospects, followed by chemical related occupations, electricㆍelectronic related occupations, mechanic related occupations. Among the top-20 occupations in the comprehensive Occupation Prospect Index, 9 were IT related occupations, while 4 were chemical related occupations, 3 were electric & electronic related, and 2 were mechanic related. IT consultants received the highest scores as the most prospective occupation, reflecting the Korean IT industry's high level of competitiveness in the global market, flexible working environment and relatively high rewards. Second, according to the Occupation Prospect Index for the 10 years time, the occupations with the highest prospects are those chemical related ones, followed by IT related occupations and mechanic related occupations. To the contrary, textile and garment related occupations showed the lowest prospects, followed by construction related occupations and material related occupations. The top-20 occupations in the comprehensive Occupation Prospect Index for the 10 years time included 5 IT related occupations, 4 mechanic related occupations, 3 environment related occupations, and 2 chemical related occupations. According to the index, the occupation with the highest prospects 10 years later will be aircraft mechanics in relation to the growth in air transportation. Third, the analysis of the change in Occupation Prospect Index for 10 years time showed a significant structural change in the world of occupations. Prospective occupations both now and in the future included engineers in various fields, city planners, aircraft mechanics, and IT related occupations (IT consultant, computer system designer, computer security specialist, etc.). The occupations with higher prospects in the future included auto assembler and inspector, computer engineer, communication engineer, system software developer, and applied software developer. Occupations with weakening occupation prospects 10 years later compared include construction related occupations, such as stonemason, floor construction worker, glass adhesion worker, building painter, and boiler installer, clay goods manufacturing operators, rice cake maker and incinerator operator. 3. Policy Implications Policy implications of the above analysis are as follows. First, it is necessary to flexibly reorganize labor force by industry and occupation in response to the future change in industry structure. According to the occupation prospect analysis, IT, electronics, chemical related occupations showed high prospects, but textiles and construction related occupations displayed a downward trend. The occupations with high prospects need to develop top brains in the field with high level of knowledge and skills required for continuous improvement in technological innovation and productivity. The industries with weakening competitiveness, such as textile and construction, need to increase the employability of workers mainly doing low skills tasks through vocation competency development. In addition, for effective labor mobility from sunset industries to emerging industries, government should provide policy support to offer education and training opportunities to acquire job skills in prospective fields. Second, working conditions of the strategically-important industries need to be improved for sustainable growth. The prospects were high for IT consultant and IT related occupations, but they rated poorly in terms of mental stress level, working hours and working conditions. Many of the industries with high growth potential or those regarded as core industries of the future with high levels of compensation and job creation are suffering from longer working hours and intense mental stress now and are expected to in the future. These results indicate that those working in the Korean economy's key industries are at the risk of depletion of competencies over a short period of time. It may not be possible to improve working conditions and reduce work intensity to match the level of advanced economies immediately, but measures should be made to lower the excessively long working hours. Third, it is important to cope with the new manpower demand in health and well-being related occupations such as environment, food, safety, and health. According to the survey, the occupations with good future prospects are food engineer, non-destructive inspector, and industrial safety & danger manager. It is anticipated that these occupations would extend rapidly with income growth, open-door policy for foreign food and goods, and enhanced interest for better health and safety among people. It is believed that global standards on environment and safety will grow in importance, as the economy becomes further integrated into the global market. Hence, an emphasis should be placed on workers to gain vocational competencies that will allow them to undertake tasks even at the international level. Fourth, it is necessary to expand the female-friendly occupations with better working conditions to cope with expected labor shortage. The Occupation Prospect Index result exhibited that food manufacturing inspector, construction cost estimator, textile inspector, and instrument repairer would generate more jobs for females, even though those occupations rated low in the comprehensive Occupation Prospect Index. This implies that female-friendly jobs are expected to expand with poor working conditions in the future and it would act as a major restriction for utilizing female labor force in the labor market. Fifth, to make 'KRIVET Occupation Prospect Index' more credible and systematic, a strategic approach is needed to secure and maintain the pool of occupation experts. In order to support career planning and development of individuals based on understanding of changes in the world of occupations, the Occupation Prospect Index survey should be carried out on a regular basis for all occupations. It is essential to build and maintain a panel of occupation experts who can provide reliable responses on the present and future state of the world of occupations. Sixth, in order to enhance the utility of the Occupation Prospect Index, it is necessary to include the questionnaire on required core competency for each occupation. Emerging as a major issue in the knowledge-based economy is to overcome the time lag between the incidence of demand for new skills and the supply of skilled workers. If demands for manpower to be actively taken into account, a mechanism should be put into place for the generation, provision and evaluation of information related to core competencies demanded by the world of occupations.목 차 요 약 제1장 서론 제1절 연구의 필요성 및 목적 1 제2절 연구의 내용과 범위 3 제3절 연구방법 6 1. 기존통계자료의 활용 7 2. 직업전문가 DB 구축 7 3. 직업전문가 대상 설문조사 8 제4절 용어의 정의 10 1. 직업전망 지표 10 2. 직업전문가 11 제2장 직업전망지표개발 연구방법론 제1절 직업전망지표개발의 방향 13 1. 직업세계 변화의 미래상 제공 13 2. 직업세계의 다차원성 강조 14 3. 현장 지향성 강화 15 4. 활용성의 극대화 15 제2절 직업전망 지표의 구성 16 1. 직업전망 지표의 범주 구성 16 2. 범주별 하위구성요소 17 3. 지표생성을 위한 가중치의 도출 18 제3절 직업전망조사의 설계 20 1. 조사설계의 개요 20 2. 직업전문가 DB구축 22 3. 설문지 재조정 29 4. 조사실시 체계의 구축 31 제3장 제조건설업종의 특징과 직업세계 제1절 제조건설업 개관 41 1. 생산 41 2. 수출 43 3. 제조건설업종내 직업의 특징 45 제2절 우리나라 직업세계의 변화추이 50 1. 산업별 취업구조 50 2. 직업별 취업구조 52 3. 종사상지위별 취업구조 54 제3절 최근 직업세계 변화의 특징 56 1. 비정규직의 확대 56 2. 청년층 실업률의 상승 58 3. 경력직 위주의 채용관행 60 4. 조기퇴직의 관행화 61 제4장 직업전망지표의 주요결과 제1절 조사개요 63 제2절 현재의 직업전망지표 67 1. 종합 직업전망지표 67 2. 영역별 직업전망지표 71 3. 주요 영역간 교차 비교 78 제3절 10년 후의 직업전망지표 84 1. 종합 직업전망지표 84 2. 영역별 직업전망지표 90 3. 영역별 교차비교 105 제4절 직업세계 변화 추세 113 1. 종합지표의 변화추이 113 2. 영역별 지표의 변화추이 122 제5절 이슈분석 및 조사결과 타당성 검토 133 1. 여성유망직종 발굴 133 2. 고령자유망직종 발굴 137 3. 조사결과 타당성 검토 139 제6절 시사점 142 제5장 요약 및 정책과제 제1절 요약 145 1. 현재의 직업전망지표 147 2. 10년 후의 직업전망지표 148 3. 현재와 10년 후간의 직업전망 변화 148 4. 유망직종 발굴-여성, 고령자 152 제2절 정책과제 154 1. 산업구조 변동에 대응한 인력재편 원활화 154 2. 전략산업 직업군의 근로여건 개선 필요 155 3. 웰빙관련 직업부상에 따른 직무능력개발 156 4. 여성친화적 일자리 확충 157 5. 직업 전문가 풀의 확보와 유지를 위한 전략적 접근 159 6. 필요직업기초능력에 관한 정보제공 161 직업전망지표의 향후과제-필요 직업기초능력 전망 제1절 문제제기 165 제2절 지식(knowledge)에서 역량(competency)으로 168 1. 개념검토-지식, 역량, 핵심역량 168 2. 지식에서 핵심역량으로 173 제3절 핵심역량의 구성항목 175 1. 역량의 구성차원 175 2. 해외사례 검토 176 3. 우리나라의 현황 183 제4절 핵심역량 조사방안과 결과활용 184 1. 핵심역량의 구성 184 2. 핵심역량 조사방안 186 3. 조사결과의 활용 187 SUMMARY 195 203 참고문헌 30