Forecasting risk with Markov-switching GARCH models : a large-scale performance study

We perform a large-scale empirical study in order to compare the forecasting performances of single-regime and Markov-switching GARCH (MSGARCH) models from a risk management perspective. We find that MSGARCH models yield more accurate Value-at-Risk, expected shortfall, and left-tail distribution forecasts than their single-regime counterparts for daily, weekly, and ten-day equity log-returns. Also, our results indicate that accounting for parameter uncertainty improves the left-tail predictions, independently of the inclusion of the Markov-switching mechanism. (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Institute of Forecasters