Exploring How Changing Monsoonal Dynamics and Human Pressures Challenge Multi-Reservoir Management of Food-Energy-Water Tradeoffs

Multi-reservoir systems require robust and adaptive control policies capable of managing evolving hydroclimatic variability and human demands across a wide range of time scales. This is especially true for systems with high intra-annual and inter-annual variability, such as monsoonal river systems that need to buffer against seasonal droughts while also managing extreme floods. Moreover, the timing, intensity, duration, and frequency of these hydrologic extremes may be affected by deeply uncertain changes in socioeconomic and climatic pressures. This study contributes an innovative method for exploring how possible changes in the timing and magnitude of monsoonal seasonal extremes impact the robustness of reservoir operating policies optimized to historical conditions assuming stationarity. We illustrate this analysis on the Red River basin in Vietnam, where reservoirs and dams serve as important sources of hydropower production, irrigable water supply, and flood protection for the capital city of Hanoi. Applying our scenario discovery approach, we find food-energy-water tradeoffs are exacerbated by potential hydrologic shifts, with wetter worlds threatening the ability of operating strategies to manage flood risk and drier worlds threatening their ability to provide sufficient water supply and hydropower production, especially if demands increase. Most notably, though, amplification of the within-year monsoonal cycle and increased inter-annual variability threaten all of the above. These findings highlight the importance of considering changes in both lower order moments of annual streamflow and intra-annual monsoonal behavior when evaluating the robustness of alternative water systems control strategies for managing deeply uncertain futures