Correlation of Tornado Intensity with Dual-Polarization Radar Information

Outstanding Student Poster at the National Weather Association Annual Meeting: 10/2014 Salt Lake City, UTAnalysis of National Weather Service radar data associated with tornadoes documented by the Storm Prediction Center through May 2014 indicates that 332 of all tornadoes and 126 significant tornadoes exhibited a polarimetric tornado debris signature (TDS). This study documented confirmed TDS events associated with significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater) from May 2010 through May 2014 and characterized multiple characteristics throughout the life cycle of each tornado. Where available, wind speeds throughout the life of the tornado corresponding to the TDS at a given time were documented. A correlation was also determined between maximum wind speed of a tornado and maximum altitude of the TDS. Results from this study documented a positive correlation between max rated wind speed and TDS height with an R2 value of 0.6302. Some outliers from the predicted value were studied with distinct differences in land type noted. The strong correlation between tornado intensity and TDS height has led to a recent change in guidance and policy on how forecasters respond to tornado threats at the NWS Peachtree City WFO. Concurrently, an investigation of the life cycle of a TDS was conducted. It was noted that the diameter of a TDS is not a good indicator of the diameter of the tornado during its mature and dissipating phase. This knowledge is beneficial for forecasters as they communicate specific threats based only on verification from radar of a tornado on the ground.NOAA Ernest F. Hollings ScholarshipPressey Honors Endowment FundNo embargoAcademic Major: Atmospheric Science