Cold Turkey? Dealing with agricultural trade liberalisation

Turkey has a particular interest in the WTO agricultural negotiations in view of its significant agricultural sector. This paper undertakes a quantitative analysis of trade liberalisation and its impact on Turkish agriculture. We use UNCTAD's Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model (ATPSM). A likely scenario suggests that Turkey may face higher import bills as world prices for cereals are expected to rise. They are likely to offset the expected gains from its exports of pulses, vegetables and fruits. Livestock producers, who would face lower import prices, would be the losers while cereal producers would be the winners - at least on the short-run. Livestock and cereal production continue to be the least productive activities, mainly because the state intervention of the past has discouraged investment and adoption of innovations. Government involvement in production, processing and marketing of agricultural goods may have hindered rather than helped the sector to become more competitive