The Spatial and Temporal Evolution of the Distribution of Cotton Production and Its Influencing Factors at County Level in China

综合采用空间集中和集聚分析方法，对1978—2011年中国县域棉花生产格局时空演变展开分析，发现中国棉花生产的空间集中程度经历了降低、平稳和上升三个阶段，整体上空间差异变大，地理重心持续向西北方向转移。棉花生产整体上高度集聚，局部呈现出黄淮海和长江中下游流域高值集聚区由片状缩减成斑块状，西北棉区逐渐形成大片区高值集聚区的变动特征。利用空间误差模型对1981、1991、2001和2011年生产空间格局的影响因素进行实证分析，结果表明：技术进步，劳动力投入，农业机械和化肥的使用对棉花生产具有正向的影响，其中技术进步影响最大；地膜、农药的作用下降，农药在后两年显现出负向影响，灌溉的影响不突出；消费市场和劳动力的非农化在县域尺度上对棉花生产格局无显著影响。This paper uses methods of spatial concentration and clustering to illustrate the changes of spatial distribution of China’s cotton production at county level from 1978 to 2011.The result shows that the degree of spa-tial concentration of cotton production goes through three periods of declining,remaining stable and going up.The spatial disparity gets larger and the gravity center moves northwest.Cotton production is highly spatial correlated on the whole.In the local,the high value cluster areas in Huanghuaihai and middle and lower Yangtze River shrink from schistose to plaques,while a large area of high value cluster forms in the northwest cotton production areas.U-sing SEMmodel to compare the influencing factors by conducting empirical analysis on cotton production data in the year of 1981,1991,2001 and 2011,it is found that technical advance,agricultural labor,agricultural machinery and fertilizer have a remarkable effect on the distribution of cotton production;the effects of mulching film and pesticide get weaker and pesticide even shows a negative effect in last two years and irrigation has little effect;consumer mar-ket and the non-agriculturalization of agricultural labor have no significant effects on that.国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)“气候变化下中国区域增长与公平控制”(2012CB955803)；国家自然科学基金项目“城市演化集成模型及模拟系统研究”646-5