Menopausal hormone therapy and pancreatic cancer risk in women : a population-based matched cohort study

Background: The role of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) in the development of pancreatic cancer is inconclusive owing to small studies and lack of proper study design. Methods: This population-based matched cohort study included all Swedish women who used systemic MHT between 1 July 2005 and 31 December 2012. For each user of MHT, three never-users of MHT were randomly selected, matched for childbirth, history of thromboembolic events, and previous hysterectomy, as well as for year of birth, diabetes, obesity, and smoking- or alcohol-related disorders. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between MHT use and pancreatic cancer. The effect of MHT duration on pancreatic cancer development was calculated using multivariable Poisson regression. Results: There were 290,186 ever-users of MHT and 870,165 matched never-users. During the follow-up, 311 (0.0011%) ever-users of MHT and 1220 (0.0014) never-users developed pancreatic cancer. In a multivariable adjusted model, ever-users had a 23% reduced risk (OR 0.77; 95% CI: 0.68-0.87) of pancreatic cancer. This risk decreased by 35% (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.65; 95% CI: 0.33-1.27) in women who used MHT 1-2 years and by 60% (IRR 0.40; 95% CI: 0.18-0.88) in women who used MHT3 years compared to women with