Modified logistic (red) predicted median (dotted lines) and 95% credible intervals (bars) of annual maxima of bison migrating beyond the northern boundary of Yellowstone National Park during 1990–2009.

<p>Observations (black circles) were precise (<i>d</i> = 0.92) resulting in narrow credible intervals of the vector of true states <b>Z_N</b>. We plotted mean process model predictions (blue bars) as <i>p_N,t</i>(<b>x_central</b>+<b>x_north</b>) to illustrate the relative contribution of process variance and observation error.